Misunderstanding the Texas Primaries
The prevailing wisdom suggests a “Democratic wave” in 2018. Analysts seem so committed to this narrative that they promote it even in defiance of the data — suggesting little was learned from the 2016 primary or general elections.
Tuesday’s primary elections in Texas are a good case in point:
Early-voting suggested good news for the Democrats: 465,245 voters took part in early-voting for their primary, as compared to 420,329 for the Republicans.
This is a big gain in Democrats over their totals in the previous midterm year, 2014, when early-voting turnout of 226,730. However, contrary to Republican Governor Greg Abbott’s scare-mongering letter on Tuesday predicting decreased Republican turnout in early-voting, the GOP actually saw an increase in participation: up 15% from 2014.
In other words, both parties seemed highly motivated in early-voting. This picture was confirmed at the ballot box:
Democrats had near record turnout, with more than 1 million voters overall who took part in their primaries.
However, Republicans had actual record-breaking turnout, exceeding their previous high-benchmark set in 2010. All said, Republicans had nearly 50% more voters take part in their primary than the Democrats, exceeding 1.5 million total votes.
In other words, there does not seem to be any kind of enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans. If Democrats’ Tuesday numbers seem impressive, this is only because their previous benchmarks in the state have been relatively low.
Despite longstanding expectations of Texas becoming a “purple” state, Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas since 1994. This is the longest losing streak for either party in the entire nation. Even if the Democrats had attained record turnout – which they didn’t — this would not necessarily presage a change of luck come November:
In 2002, when Democrats set their record for midterm primary turnout, they failed to flip even one single Congressional seat in the general election, and lost the gubernatorial race too.
As for the specific seats Democrats are looking to flip in November, it looks like Republicans would retain control if the races were decided on the basis of Tuesday’s vote. That is, Democrats have a lot of work to do catching up between now and November.
Just as important, perhaps more important, were the differences in the tone and tenor of each party’s primary races:
On the Democrat side, there was bitter internal strife, dating back to the previous election cycle, between the so-called “establishment” Democrats and the populist “Berniecrats.” Many of these latter voters are not committed partisans: while highly-motivated to support populists, many refuse to lend their support to more conventional Democratic candidates. As we saw in 2016, many former Sanders supporters sat the general election out, others vote for third parties, some even voted for Trump.
In short: Democrats should be concerned about their ability to mobilize populists in races “establishment” figures won. Democratic voters are generally disinclined to vote in midterms anyway. So the party could find itself facing another enthusiasm deficit for many key races come November.
On the Republican side, by contrast, there was clear unity behind the president and the party. The race was mostly about which candidate was most supportive of Mr. Trump. That is, Republican voters seem likely to support whomever is on their ticket in the general election, regardless of who they voted for in the primaries.
We can count on GOP primary voters to actually turn out in November as well: in contrast with Democrats, Republicans reliably vote in midterms. And, again, the primary numbers suggest that enthusiasm is particularly high in the Republican base this year too.
Indeed, Republicans are motivated, in part, to act as a bulwark against the predicted “blue wave.” Candidates like Ted Cruz have been doing their best do reinforce expectations of a possible Democratic surge in order to get his base to the polls: “We know that the left is going to show up…the extreme left, they’re angry. They’re filled with rage. They hate the president.”
Republicans’ record-breaking primary turnout suggest this can be a pretty effective mobilization strategy for the GOP.
However, it could actually be dangerous for Democrats to raise expectations of a wave: again, Democratic constituents are generally disinclined to vote in midterms in the first place. To the extent that these voters are not particularly excited about the candidates their party fields, and believe that Democrats will likely make major gains with or without their vote — given the seemingly inevitable backlash against Trump – then it becomes more likely that many will stay home on Election Day.
In short: not only can the “blue wave” narrative distract us from what is happening on the ground, it can actually help drive Republican enthusiasm in November and undermine Democratic turnout – not quite the double whammy Democratic strategists are looking for.