Observers typically assume that if people are dissatisfied with a state of affairs, they will work to change it. Cognitive and behavioral scientists know that this assumption frequently fails as a result of the “default effect” For instance, Americans have widespread concerns about how software and entertainment companies are collecting and using their data or… Continue reading Want to shake up the status quo? Account for the default effect.
Tag: Syria
Iraqi, Syrian Refugees May be ISIS’ ‘Achilles Heel’
In the aftermath of the series of attacks in Paris, attributed to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), French President François Hollande has declared a three-month state of emergency. This measure enables the military and law enforcement to monitor, arrest, detain and interrogate persons, with little or no due process. These powers… Continue reading Iraqi, Syrian Refugees May be ISIS’ ‘Achilles Heel’
On the Limitations of Air-Power for Counter-Insurgency/ Counter-Terror Operations
Due to the intentionally vague language of the post-9/11 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF), both the George W. Bush and Obama Administrations have been empowered to interpret their counter-terrorism mandate broadly, to include targets from the Taliban, ISIS, Boko Haram and other derivatives and affiliates of al-Qaeda—anywhere around the world and indefinitely.… Continue reading On the Limitations of Air-Power for Counter-Insurgency/ Counter-Terror Operations
Foreign Policy Fundamentalism
Originally published in The Wilson Quarterly, Vol. XXXIX, No. 3 (Summer 2015) Print version available here. With pomp and polish and platitudes, the 2016 presidential campaign is underway. It began in December, as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush announced he was “actively exploring” a run for the White House. Bush is more moderate than much… Continue reading Foreign Policy Fundamentalism
The Islamic State’s Supposed Theology is a Dangerous Distraction
It is problematic to assert that the Islamic State (ISIS or IS) is not “Islamic” in large part because the assertion presupposes there is a “true” and a “false” Islam—one by which Barack Obama or liberal Muslim intellectuals can judge whether others are “authentic” believers or not. This is the same takfir (excommunication) doctrine that… Continue reading The Islamic State’s Supposed Theology is a Dangerous Distraction
On the Strategic Logic of ISIL’s Atrocities
Following ISIL’s immolation Moaz al-Kasasbeh, many attributed the viciousness of his execution to the fact that he was a Jordanian pilot. The narrative is that the coalition airstrikes have been devastating for ISIL, and this extreme act was a desperate bid to dissuade allied forces from further strikes. By this logic, their tactic backfired: not… Continue reading On the Strategic Logic of ISIL’s Atrocities
Rethinking ISIL’s Immolation of Moaz al-Kasasbeh
One of the most popular narratives about ISIL’s recent immolation of Jordanian Moaz al-Kasasbeh is that the group resorted to such brutal measures against the pilot because they are desperate—pushed to the brink by coalition airstrikes. However, there are four major problems with this interpretation:
Credibility is about Outcomes, not “Resolve”
In wake of Vladimir Putin annexing Crimea into the Russian Federation and supporting Eastern separatists against a Ukrainian government it perhaps rightly views as illegitimate, U.S. policy hawks argued the entire crisis could have been prevented: had President Obama followed through on his August 2013 commitment to bomb the Syrian government in retaliation for its… Continue reading Credibility is about Outcomes, not “Resolve”
Yes, ISIS is “Islamic” (But with regards to policy, it really, really doesn’t matter)
It is perhaps disingenuous to claim that ISIS is not “Islamic,” as many Muslim apologists have attempted. This is in part because there is no “true” and “false” Islam objectively accessible to human beings. And it’s in part because ISIS, it’s leaders and its supporters all explicitly tie themselves to Islam. Would-be Caliph Abu Bakr… Continue reading Yes, ISIS is “Islamic” (But with regards to policy, it really, really doesn’t matter)
Mexico’s Cartels Are More Depraved, Dangerous than ISIL
The horrific rampage of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has captured the world’s attention. Many Western commentators have insisted that ISIL’s crimes are unique, no longer practiced anywhere else in the civilized world. Worse still, they argue that the group’s barbaric practices are intrinsically Islamic, a product of the aggressive and… Continue reading Mexico’s Cartels Are More Depraved, Dangerous than ISIL
Obama is Falling into Al-Baghdadi’s Trap
Just prior to the U.S.-led anti-Daish (ISIS) campaign into Syria, the group released a highly-polished 55-minute documentary, “Flames of War,” in which they challenged the United States to heavily mobilize in Iraq and Syria. They have made similar taunts when they executed Western hostages, seized American weapons, or co-opted the rebels trained to fight against… Continue reading Obama is Falling into Al-Baghdadi’s Trap
Critical Context on the U.S. Airstrikes in Syria
The Obama Administration has just announced that they and their coalition allies have begun a fierce campaign of airstrikes in Syria, bombing primarily “hard-targets” in the IS stronghold of Raqqa (about 20 of them). Here’s what is known—and perhaps more importantly—what is not known so far: “Sunni Arab” Partners The U.S. was the only non-Arab actor to participate in the… Continue reading Critical Context on the U.S. Airstrikes in Syria
On the Philosophical Underpinnings of Al-Qaeda & the Islamic State
The public discourse about transnational jihadist organizations indiscriminately lumps together al-Qaeda, its forerunners (such as the Taliban), affiliates (such as Jahbat al-Nusra), its derivatives (such as Ansar al-Sharia or the Islamic State), and even groups which have no strong connection to al-Qaeda or such as Hamas, Hezbollah, or local tribal militants. It is not just… Continue reading On the Philosophical Underpinnings of Al-Qaeda & the Islamic State
Fantasyland Syria and its Horrific Real-World Consequences
In the wake of the Islamic State’s takeover of northern Iraq and Syrian territories, several foreign policy hawks have blamed the Obama administration’s for failing to act in Syria. They claim that had the U.S. provided greater arms to the Syrian rebels or directly intervened on their behalf, Syria’s “moderate” opposition would have long triumphed… Continue reading Fantasyland Syria and its Horrific Real-World Consequences
Understanding Sectarianism in Iraq and Beyond
On Aug. 14, embattled Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki stepped down and accepted the candidacy of his successor, Haider al-Abadi, who was nominated last week by the Iraqi president in an effort to end months of political stalemate in Baghdad. Maliki’s ouster has been a key demand of the Sunni opposition and United States. His… Continue reading Understanding Sectarianism in Iraq and Beyond
Arming the Syrian Rebels is Counterproductive: Here’s Why…
A critique circulating by many foreign policy hawks is that the Obama Administration was far too concerned about delineating the “moderates” from the “extremists” of Syria’s rebellion, and only providing support to the former. They speculate that if the United States had provided more aid early on, extremists like the Islamic State would have never… Continue reading Arming the Syrian Rebels is Counterproductive: Here’s Why…
The Obama Administration’s “Yeminization” of the Mideast
Earlier this month, the White House unveiled its new foreign policy credo: “Don’t do stupid shit.” While many lamented the modesty of this approach, acting with restraint in order to limit iatrogenesis is certainly a worthy goal—and an approach with wide and enduring popular support—in fact, this is the vision most of Obama’s voters endorsed… Continue reading The Obama Administration’s “Yeminization” of the Mideast
Red Hands, False Flags: Erdogan’s Plan for War with Syria
Earlier this week, two videos, totaling 15 minutes, began circulating on YouTube wherein senior Turkish officials, including Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Intelligence Chief Hakan Fidan, discuss at length their intentions to have extremist groups in Syria carry out an attack on the Tomb of Suleiman Shah, the grandfather of the Ottoman Empire’s founder. This attack… Continue reading Red Hands, False Flags: Erdogan’s Plan for War with Syria
The Thin and Highly-Permeable Line Between Revolution & Tyranny
Summary of a revolution: people making drastic and weighty decisions, rapidly and spontaneously, in a highly emotional state–often under the sway of some charismatic leader. Question: Are these the sorts of actions we tend to retrospectively endorse or regret? Followers of my work will know that I have been highly critical of virtually all… Continue reading The Thin and Highly-Permeable Line Between Revolution & Tyranny
Nakba or Fursa? The Collapse of the Syrian Opposition
The Syria National Coalition (SNC), much like its predecessor, the Syrian National Council, has never enjoyed much legitimacy or influence within Syria. Their only meaningful link to events on the ground has been the Supreme Military Council (SMC), headed up by the military defectors who initially called themselves the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and ostensibly… Continue reading Nakba or Fursa? The Collapse of the Syrian Opposition
The Slow and Agonizing Death of Syria’s Civil War
Those who are hoping that an agreement between the exogenous opposition and the Syrian government can bring an end to the civil war misunderstand the purpose of the Geneva communique and subsequent talks: the aim is to get foreign powers to stop exacerbating and perpetuating the crisis, principally the United States and its regional allies.… Continue reading The Slow and Agonizing Death of Syria’s Civil War
The Geneva Talks Are Not About Syria
In the second round of Geneva II talks, the government agreed to a temporary ceasefire in Homs, and a lifting of the blockade, in order to allow citizens to flee if they wish, and to allow some aid and provisions to enter for those who remain. Immediately following this concession on the part of the… Continue reading The Geneva Talks Are Not About Syria
The Obama Administration’s Case for Military Intervention in Syria? Bullshit.
In philosophy circles, bullshit is a technical term denoting a claim presented as “fact” although its veracity has not been established. The truth value of bullshit is largely irrelevant to its propagators. Bullshit is disseminated in the service of particular ends, typically opaque to the audience. There is no better description for the White House’s… Continue reading The Obama Administration’s Case for Military Intervention in Syria? Bullshit.
Moral Outrage from Munafiqun
“When it is said to them: ‘Make not mischief on the earth,’ they say: ‘why, we are but peacemakers!’ Surely, these are the ones who foster discord, but they perceive it not.” Al-Qur’an 2:11-2 In the midst of his ill-fated case in the Parliament to authorize the use of force in Syria, PM David Cameron… Continue reading Moral Outrage from Munafiqun
Red Lines, Syrian Blood
It doesn’t matter whether or not Bashar al-Asad used chemical weapons. The U.S. and its allies are going to carry out an attack on Syria in the very near future; the reasons for this attack have nothing to do with the recent incident in Ghouta. In response to the chemical attack in April, two months… Continue reading Red Lines, Syrian Blood
Game Theory v. Reality in Syria
Despite the overwhelming skepticism of the international community, the Obama Administration recently changed its evaluation of the ‘evidence’ of chemical weapons use in Syria. By its own admission, this was to serve as a pretext for their previously-rendered and domestically unpopular decision to deepen U.S. involvement in the conflict in an attempt to offset the Syrian army’s… Continue reading Game Theory v. Reality in Syria
Rejoinder to “Order, Freedom and Chaos: Sovereignties in Syria”
“Syria Contextualized: The Numbers Game,” demonstrated that contrary to the popular narratives, most Syrians seem to support President al-Asad over the armed rebels. Moreover, it was argued that most of the casualties from the conflict were combatants, that the regime probably controlled more territory than the narrative suggested, that the dynamics of the conflict seem… Continue reading Rejoinder to “Order, Freedom and Chaos: Sovereignties in Syria”
The Semantics of Revolution
Many in media and academic circles seem to pride themselves on having advanced beyond the “Clash of Civilizations” rhetoric that defined the aftermath of September 11th (2001). However, upon analysis is clear that the primary development has been the transformation of these frameworks into euphemistic forms: consider, for instance, the supposed conflict between the liberals… Continue reading The Semantics of Revolution
Chemical Weapons, Toxic Discourse
In a letter responding to inquiries by Arizona Sen. John McCain, a hawkish advocate for U.S. intervention in Syria for the better part of two years (independently of the “chemical weapons” question, which is merely his latest pretext for U.S. involvement), the White House stated that there is intelligence suggesting that chemical weapons have been… Continue reading Chemical Weapons, Toxic Discourse
Breaking the Stalemates in Syria (Literal & Rhetorical)
In a number of interviews in recent months, U.S. Secretary of State Kerry has been talking about the need to “change Bashar al-Asad’s calculus” with regards to the conflict in Syria. While there is a sense in which this statement is correct (should the goal be the President’s resignation), Kerry seems to misunderstand what Bashar’s… Continue reading Breaking the Stalemates in Syria (Literal & Rhetorical)
Why the Numbers (Still) Matter in Syria
Jadaliyya “featured” my “Syria Contextualized: The Numbers Game” in their 4/4/2013 Syria Media Roundup. In a transparent attempt to “poison the well” against my findings (and in contrast with the neutral-to-positive tone with which literally all of the other articles were described), my paper was summarized as follows: “Musa al-Gharbi argues that we do not… Continue reading Why the Numbers (Still) Matter in Syria
Barack Hussein Obama, Moderate Neoconservative
In early 2003, Saddam Hussein’s regional and international allies were all warning him that an American invasion was imminent. Hussein’s reply was basically, “I know Washington’s tone is getting aggressive, but they aren’t going to try to remove me. I’m the only one in the region who is really taking the fight to the terrorists… Continue reading Barack Hussein Obama, Moderate Neoconservative
Contextualizing Syria’s Civil War: Beyond the Numbers
Originally published in Middle East Policy, Vol. XX, No. 1 (Spring 2013) Print version available here. The popular discourse on the Syrian conflict has largely taken for granted that Bashar al-Asad and his regime are unpopular in Syria, the revolution is widely supported domestically, the rebels are “winning” the war, and the fall of… Continue reading Contextualizing Syria’s Civil War: Beyond the Numbers
Timeline of the Syrian Civil War
Before the Arab Uprisings, Syria was one of the safest countries in the world. There were robust protections for women and ethno-religious minorities. While the government was authoritarian, the trends were towards liberalization—both economic and political. While there were some factions within Syria who were understandably dissatisfied at the pace of reform (which was, indeed,… Continue reading Timeline of the Syrian Civil War
Moammar Gaddhafi’s Final Victory
It would not be surprising if there are many in the Obama Administration who occasionally think, “I miss Moammar Gaddhafi.” And if no one there is thinking that, they should. And not just because of the camping trips he would take in New York City, his amazing sense of style, his elite unit of all-female bodyguards,… Continue reading Moammar Gaddhafi’s Final Victory
The Arab Spring’s Third Wave
Insofar as it is helpful or accurate to understand the “Arab Spring” as a meta-movement which began with the December 17, 2010 self-immolation of Mohammad Bouazizi, we can break it into a few significant “waves.” The first wave of revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt were quick, peaceful and orderly, relative to the second wave with… Continue reading The Arab Spring’s Third Wave
Syria: To The Victor, Ruins
As the conflict has dragged on in Syria, growing in intensity with no sign of resolution or international intervention, the regime may seem incredibly resilient: they have been able to push the rebels out of Damascus, to protect the majority-Alawite territories, to hold Aleppo, and to keep pressure on the insurgents through artillery and airpower. But… Continue reading Syria: To The Victor, Ruins
The Arab Spring and the New Mujahadeen
Following the military coup which removed Hosni Mubarak, it was widely reported that al-Qaeda was rendered obsolete by the Arab Spring. Fareed Zakaria, for instance, pronounced: “The Arab Revolts of 2011 represent a total repudiation of al Qaeda’s founding ideology. For 20 years, al Qaeda has said that the regimes of the Arab World are… Continue reading The Arab Spring and the New Mujahadeen
Resist Overly-Simple Narratives About Syria, Asad
While one would never know it from the news, the reform process in Syria is actually going smoother than it is in Egypt. If this might sound crazy to the everyday headline reader, think of it this way: Syria has a popularly approved new constitution, a democratically elected parliament that the state actually recognizes and… Continue reading Resist Overly-Simple Narratives About Syria, Asad
Eternal Recurrence: Al-Asad & Al-Qaeda
On July 15th 2012, Nawaf al-Fares, Syria’s former Ambassador to Iraq, defected to the opposition. Along with his defection, he called for the international community, especially the United States, to act militarily in Syria to remove President Bashar al-Asad from power. At that same time, he claimed that the al-Asad regime had aided al-Qaeda’s insurgency… Continue reading Eternal Recurrence: Al-Asad & Al-Qaeda
Is Reality Another Victim of the Massacre at Houla?
“With a tenuous peace settling over Syria, a former White House official says it would take powerful video images blasted on cable news of regime-orchestrated brutality to draw in the U.S. military. Barry Pavel, a former National Security Council and Pentagon official, tells DOTMIL via Twitter the U.S. “will act only if [a] ‘CNN… Continue reading Is Reality Another Victim of the Massacre at Houla?