In the Abrahamic religions, there is a profound mystery in how to reconcile belief in free will with faith in divine providence. Similar mysteries lie at the heart of political science. For instance, over the past 45 years, every time there has been a change of party in the White House, the opposing party won… Continue reading Democrats Will Lose the House in 2022. It Probably Doesn’t Matter What They Do.
Tag: Election 2020
On the January 6 Capitol Riots and ‘Teaching to the Moment’
In the aftermath of the January 6 riots at the U.S. Capitol, which left five people dead, and nearly derailed Congressional certification of the 2020 election results, many in higher ed have been wrestling with questions around what they can do to help mitigate the cultural and political crisis we find ourselves in, and how… Continue reading On the January 6 Capitol Riots and ‘Teaching to the Moment’
Are Democrats Actually Capable of Learning from 2020?
The U.S. presidential races in 2000 and 2004 went for Republicans. In 2008 and 2012 went for Democrats. In 2016, for Republicans. In 2020, for Democrats again. Despite Democrats winning the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, they saw historic losses in the midterms for 2010 and 2014. If we want to understand how we… Continue reading Are Democrats Actually Capable of Learning from 2020?
Whatever Happened to the Obama Coalition?
In 2008, Barack Obama was widely described as having built a game-changing political coalition: young people, racial and ethnic minorities, educated professionals, urban and suburban voters. He was held to have built an innovative campaign infrastructure, leveraging big data and social media in an unprecedented way, increasing turnout and Democratic vote share with constituencies that… Continue reading Whatever Happened to the Obama Coalition?
Religion and Politics in the Age of Trump
In a previous essay I demonstrated that Democrats have been consistently losing ground with both people of color and people of faith in virtually every midterm and general election cycle after 2008. Republicans, meanwhile, have seen consistent gains with many constituencies. What occurred in 2016, therefore, was not an aberration – but the culmination of… Continue reading Religion and Politics in the Age of Trump
The Biden Administration Has a Weak Mandate
In his masterful book Tides of Consent,” political scientist James Stimson explains that voters usually put a party in power in order to realize moderate change in a particular direction. However, once in office, parties regularly overstep their mandate, going farther than the public wanted. Other times, parties fail to realize the reforms they were… Continue reading The Biden Administration Has a Weak Mandate
Trump is Doing Surprisingly Well with Minority Voters. It Might Not Matter.
In 2016, Donald Trump got a lower share of the white vote than the previous Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, and white turnout was stagnant as compared to 2012. Trump was able to win nonetheless because he got a higher share of Black and Hispanic voters than his predecessor — up roughly 3 percentage points with… Continue reading Trump is Doing Surprisingly Well with Minority Voters. It Might Not Matter.
Trump Voters Have Been Misunderstood All Along (Including By Trump)
Unprecedented numbers of Americans — including a growing share of Republicans and independents — recognize racial injustice as pervasive, support police reform and back the protests against police brutality. Apparently oblivious to this emerging consensus, Trump is trying to run a Nixon-style “law-and-order” campaign for the 2020 election. And it is killing him politically. Trump has seen a dramatic and… Continue reading Trump Voters Have Been Misunderstood All Along (Including By Trump)
Bloomberg Won’t Win. Sanders Could.
Joe Biden seems to think that Democrats are really well positioned for 2020, recently arguing “We could run Mickey Mouse against this president and have a shot.” The rest of us aren’t so sure: According to a recent Pew Research Center poll, a plurality (48%) of Americans want Trump to be unseated in 2020. Yet… Continue reading Bloomberg Won’t Win. Sanders Could.
The Media Really Is Obsessed With Donald Trump
Trump has an unhealthy fixation with the media. He seems to get most of his information about the world from newspapers and cable news, over and above the experts tasked with advising him. He obsesses over how he is portrayed in mainstream outlets, and regularly takes to social media to whine about the coverage in… Continue reading The Media Really Is Obsessed With Donald Trump
Pelosi’s Impeachment Bid Will Fail
On Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that a formal impeachment inquiry is going to be launched, looking into President Trump’s alleged attempts to get dirt on Joe and Hunter Biden from the Ukrainian government, among other accusations levelled against the president by a whistleblower from the U.S. intelligence community. Trump will definitely get impeached… Continue reading Pelosi’s Impeachment Bid Will Fail
How the Media Could Get the Last Laugh on Trump
“Behind every image, something has disappeared. And that is the source of its fascination.” Jean Baudrillard, Why Hasn’t Everything Already Disappeared (p. 32). According to a New York Times report, “At the midpoint of his term, Mr. Trump has grown more sure of his own judgment and more cut off from anyone else’s than at… Continue reading How the Media Could Get the Last Laugh on Trump
Securitization Vs. Social Justice
It must have felt fresh the first time a political figure equated civil rights with national-security crises. Perhaps it was when Frederick Douglass told Abraham Lincoln that by keeping the Union Army all white, he was “fighting rebels with only one arm,” or more recently when advocates for women’s rights competed for who was quicker… Continue reading Securitization Vs. Social Justice
Democrats Should be Very Alarmed by the 2018 Midterm Results
After flipping dozens of seats in the midterm elections, Democrats are set to take control of the House of Representatives. Many pundits and analysts have attempted to frame the race as a referendum on President Trump. Among these, there seems to be a consensus that the president has somehow been “repudiated.” Not so fast. To… Continue reading Democrats Should be Very Alarmed by the 2018 Midterm Results
What Was Elizabeth Warren Thinking?
Elizabeth Warren has repeatedly identified herself as Cherokee. For most of her early career, while she worked at the University of Texas, this was not the case. However, beginning in the mid 1980s, as she was aspiring to move from University of Texas to the Ivy Leagues, she also began identifying herself as ‘Native American’… Continue reading What Was Elizabeth Warren Thinking?
First the Farce, then the Tragedy
“Hegel remarks somewhere that all facts and personages of great importance in world history occur, as it were, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second as farce.” Karl Marx, ‘The 18th Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte’ (Chapter 1) “Be careful how you move, the traps are covered in the lights. Landmines… Continue reading First the Farce, then the Tragedy
Want to shake up the status quo? Account for the default effect.
Observers typically assume that if people are dissatisfied with a state of affairs, they will work to change it. Cognitive and behavioral scientists know that this assumption frequently fails as a result of the “default effect” For instance, Americans have widespread concerns about how software and entertainment companies are collecting and using their data or… Continue reading Want to shake up the status quo? Account for the default effect.
Historical Patterns Suggest Trump Will Probably Win a Second Term
6/30/2020 Update: I have been bullish about Trump’s prospects from 2016, through the midterms, his impeachment, and even through the COVID-19 outbreak. In the early stages of the pandemic, Trump’s approval ticked up. And indeed, even today Trump continues to receive high marks for his handling of the economy, despite many Americans being out of… Continue reading Historical Patterns Suggest Trump Will Probably Win a Second Term