Throughout the 2024 cycle, polling has suggested that Republicans are poised to do extraordinarily well with African Americans. Even with Harris at the top of the ticket, more than 1 out of 5 black voters say they support Donald Trump. Younger black voters seem especially open to casting ballots for the GOP. On its face,… Continue reading Race to the Bottom: Both Parties Are Alienating Core Ethnic Blocs
Tag: Joe Biden
With Kamala or Biden: Chaos is the Only Predictable Element of the 2024 Election Cycle
Since Joe Biden was taken off the ballot, things seem to be going well for Kamala Harris. She formally secured her presidential nomination from the Democratic National Committee with minimal fuss. Other party faithful quickly lined up behind her. Mainstream media outlets have offered overwhelming upbeat, glamorizing and uncritical coverage of Harris since her predecessor… Continue reading With Kamala or Biden: Chaos is the Only Predictable Element of the 2024 Election Cycle
Bill and Hillary Clinton Revolutionized U.S. Politics (Twice)
Joe Biden’s approval rating has been consistently underwater for most of his presidency. Although there has been a bit of improvement, the president continues to trail Trump in most swing states. Eager to turn around his fortunes, Biden has sought to enlist the Clintons into his reelection bid – starting with Hillary, who hosted a… Continue reading Bill and Hillary Clinton Revolutionized U.S. Politics (Twice)
Israel’s Campaign in Gaza is a Failure on Every Level. The U.S. Must Stop Enabling It.
On December 14th, CNN aired a devastating peek into life in the Gaza Strip. The dispatch, from Clarissa Ward, marked the first piece of independent reporting from Gaza by a Western journalist since October 7th (all other reports by Western correspondents to date have come from people embedded with the Israeli army who had to… Continue reading Israel’s Campaign in Gaza is a Failure on Every Level. The U.S. Must Stop Enabling It.
It’s the (Knowledge) Economy, Stupid
The biggest divide in American politics at present is not along the lines of socioeconomic status (SES), nor educational attainment, nor type (urban, suburban, small town, rural), nor gender – although these factors all serve as important proxies for the distinction that matters most. The key schism that lies at the heart of dysfunction within… Continue reading It’s the (Knowledge) Economy, Stupid
On Populism, Labor and Partisan Politics
On September 27th, the Republican Party will hold the second debate in their primary contest. The decisive frontrunner for the nomination, Donald Trump, has once again declined to participate. Instead, the former president will deliver a primetime campaign speech in Detroit to a purported audience of current and former members of the United Auto Workers… Continue reading On Populism, Labor and Partisan Politics
Democrats Will Lose the House in 2022. It Probably Doesn’t Matter What They Do.
In the Abrahamic religions, there is a profound mystery in how to reconcile belief in free will with faith in divine providence. Similar mysteries lie at the heart of political science. For instance, over the past 45 years, every time there has been a change of party in the White House, the opposing party won… Continue reading Democrats Will Lose the House in 2022. It Probably Doesn’t Matter What They Do.
Are Democrats Actually Capable of Learning from 2020?
The U.S. presidential races in 2000 and 2004 went for Republicans. In 2008 and 2012 went for Democrats. In 2016, for Republicans. In 2020, for Democrats again. Despite Democrats winning the presidential elections in 2008 and 2012, they saw historic losses in the midterms for 2010 and 2014. If we want to understand how we… Continue reading Are Democrats Actually Capable of Learning from 2020?
Whatever Happened to the Obama Coalition?
In 2008, Barack Obama was widely described as having built a game-changing political coalition: young people, racial and ethnic minorities, educated professionals, urban and suburban voters. He was held to have built an innovative campaign infrastructure, leveraging big data and social media in an unprecedented way, increasing turnout and Democratic vote share with constituencies that… Continue reading Whatever Happened to the Obama Coalition?
The Biden Administration Has a Weak Mandate
In his masterful book Tides of Consent,” political scientist James Stimson explains that voters usually put a party in power in order to realize moderate change in a particular direction. However, once in office, parties regularly overstep their mandate, going farther than the public wanted. Other times, parties fail to realize the reforms they were… Continue reading The Biden Administration Has a Weak Mandate